Public Perceptions About Crime Trends

[Although the post below focuses specifically on data from Oregon, it should resonate with communities all over the country. Drop us an email or leave a comment: do people in your community mistakenly believe crime is gong up? -Ed.]
Major violent and property crime rates have been consistently declining in the United States, but does the public believe crime is going down? 
This was the topic of “Do Oregonians Know about the Crime Drop?”, a research brief recently released by Portland State University’s Criminal Justice Policy Research Institute. 
In Oregon, like many states throughout the U.S., violent and property crime rates are at the lowest levels since the 1960’s. A steady decline in crime rates has been occurring for 15 years, with minor increases or leveling in some years, but the overall drop is significant. A national crime victimization survey also reports the same declining trend. 
Such declines should be cause for celebration. However, a recent survey of Oregonians conducted by the Criminal Justice Policy Research Institute found that:

• 52% believed Oregon crime increased in the last year
• 38%  believed Oregon crime stayed the same
• 10% believed Oregon crime increased

There is a significant gap between public perceptions and objective measures of crime. This is disconcerting, because research shows that beliefs about crime, fear of crime, and perceptions about crime control effectiveness have important consequences. Beliefs about crime and criminal justice affect legitimacy and trust in public officials and government institutions, compliance with the law and legal authority, and public empowerment of government.
There were some factors that correlated with beliefs about crime trends, but we don’t know for sure what lies behind this perception gap. For example, more conservative, dissatisfied, and less affluent persons tended to believe that crime was increasing. On the other hand, more affluence and education, and less punishment-oriented values, characterized persons who believed crime was decreasing.
In sum, efforts to address public safety should give careful attention to how perceptions of crime and safety are formed, particularly influences from media, to better educate the public about the nature of local or state crime problems. Enhancing a sense of well-being will increase public trust and confidence in the criminal justice system.   
 

Dr. Brian Renauer chairs the Criminology and Criminal Justice Division at Portland State University, where he directs the Criminal Justice Policy Research Institute. He works with Oregon's Law Enforcement Contacts Policy and Data Review Committee (LECC), which is charged by the state legislature to explore community concerns over racial/ethnic bias in law enforcement practices, offer technical assistance to agencies that desire to collect traffic stop data, improve training for the state, and monitor public perceptions of law enforcement. Dr. Renauer also conducts community-level research with police departments and crime prevention programs.